Guide
Expected Value
EV as the probability-weighted average outcome — the bridge between RTP tables and real wagering decisions.
~7 min readUpdated 2026-08-06
Formula
EV = Σ (probability × outcome). For a simple win/lose bet: EV = p × winProfit − (1 − p) × stake.
Usage
Use EV to compare bets and detect when a paytable embeds edge. Do not confuse a positive sample path with positive EV.
Frequently asked questions
Parent pages
Sibling guides
- What Are Duel Originals?A clear definition of Duel Originals: in-house, fast-round games with transparent parameters, published RTP targets, and provably fair verification.
- How Provably Fair WorksLearn server seeds, client seeds, nonces, commitments, and how to verify that a round result was not altered after the fact.
- Understanding RTPReturn to Player explained without marketing fluff: long-run average, sample variance, and how to read published percentages.
- House Edge ExplainedHow house edge relates to RTP, why it compounds with wager volume, and how to estimate expected loss.
- Variance ExplainedWhy identical RTP games produce different session shapes, drawdowns, and emotional experiences.
- Bankroll ManagementPractical bankroll rules for fast Originals: session caps, stake fractions, and stop conditions that survive variance.
- Random Number GeneratorsHow RNGs and seed-derived randomness power Originals, and what “random” does and does not mean for players.
- Best Duel OriginalsA criteria-based shortlist — by learning value, RTP transparency, and variance profile — not by hype.
- Fastest GamesWhich Originals resolve quickest, and why speed increases bankroll throughput risk.
- Highest RTP GamesA comparative look at Originals with the strongest advertised return profiles — with caveats about configuration.
Related guides
- House Edge ExplainedHow house edge relates to RTP, why it compounds with wager volume, and how to estimate expected loss.
- Understanding RTPReturn to Player explained without marketing fluff: long-run average, sample variance, and how to read published percentages.
- Variance ExplainedWhy identical RTP games produce different session shapes, drawdowns, and emotional experiences.
- Bankroll ManagementPractical bankroll rules for fast Originals: session caps, stake fractions, and stop conditions that survive variance.
- What Are Duel Originals?A clear definition of Duel Originals: in-house, fast-round games with transparent parameters, published RTP targets, and provably fair verification.